My goal this month was to find and describe for you the location of the legendary Biblical city of Sodom. But stuff happens. And after all, Sodom will still be there, wherever it is, next month, since it has been missing for 3,500 years!
What happened was that I found a quantitative indicator of how Ukrainian leaders feel about the Trump-Harris election contest, and the US military and other assistance leaders have been receiving since the Russian invasion. Hundreds of articles have been written describing the dissatisfaction that Ukrainian civilians, soldiers and leaders have felt with the dribbling slow pace of US assistance, and a few citizen surveys have been undertaken, but no-one before has gotten a quantitative bead on the attitude of the country’s leadership.
My reliable source on this, who wishes to remain anonymous, states that s/he attended a US election watch function on the afternoon and evening of November 5, 2024, at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, in the branch office located in Volunteer Battalions Lane in the Embassy Row area of Kiev. The Institute is a well-regarded and prestigious organization founded in 2016 which focuses on the macro-economic, energy and foreign policy future of the country.
The event was a cross between a cocktail party and a briefing, with TV screens set up and a conference call/video link for intermittent commentary from experts on US politics. There was no agenda or formal lecture. Over 65 persons attended, including Ukrainian parliamentarians and leaders, senior civil servants, military officers and other officials. President Zelenskyy did not attend. The US election results were not available yet, so my source left and returned the next morning at 11 am local time, after the US results were in, and most attendees had left.
During the function on the 5th, an informal ballot survey was distributed to attendees, asking them to vote on whether they thought that Kamala Harris would be better for Ukraine, or Donald Trump would be better, or neither would be better. (See image 1 below.) The ballots were collected but not tabulated on the evening of the 5th. My source, arriving on the morning of the 6th, saw the pile of ballots and inquired about the results, but no-one had counted them. So then the ballots were tallied, with these surprising results:
· 15 of 62 respondents (24%) felt that Harris and the Democrats would be better for Ukraine
· 7 of 62 (11%) felt that Trump and the Republicans would be better
· 40 of 62 (65%) felt that it would make no difference to Ukraine if Harris or Trump was elected.
These results show the failure of the “Sullivan Doctrine,” named after President Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, who has apparently been the primary decision maker in restricting the flow of US weapons to Ukraine, and in placing restrictions on their use against the Russians. While all Ukrainians are grateful for the US aid provided, they feel that the Sullivan Doctrine has led to tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilian deaths, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers being killed or wounded, the destruction of numerous cities, towns and villages, the kidnapping of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, and no real progress made in restoring Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. From the Ukrainian and US perspective, the Sullivan Doctrine has resulted in Ukraine fighting not one nuclear power, Russia, but several, including North Korea and Iran (which has nuclear capabilities but has not quite yet developed a bomb and delivery system), and China and India (which are supporting Russia economically and with equipment). Sullivan’s attempt to contain the conflict has clearly failed on many levels, and certainly a quick win against Russian aggression has not been achieved.
Could the majority 65% of Ukrainian leaders be wrong, and Trump could be much worse for Ukraine? No doubt. Trump promised that he would “end the conflict within 24 hours after being elected” (note: not “inaugurated”). That promise has already been broken, because the conflict has in fact escalated since the US election, with Russian assault “meat waves” and losses reaching record numbers of 1500 to 1950 soldiers killed or wounded per day.
Perhaps Trump will finally realize that Putin despises him, as evidenced by the Russian State TV channel and gloating commentators showing photos of Melania Trump naked, immediately after the election. That might trigger Trump’s egomania to punish Putin rather than worship him.
Only time will tell.
Next month we will locate the elusive sin city of Sodom – maybe.
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- 1. The ballot tally from November 5 at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kiev, before US election results were known, shows that 65% (40/62) of Ukrainian leaders voting felt that the US election of either Trump or Harris would not matter much to the fate of Ukraine (bottom box), while 24% felt Harris would be better for Ukraine (top box) and 11% felt Trump would be better (center box).
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- 2. The Ukrainian Institute for the Future branch office on Volunteer Battalions Lane in the Embassy Row area of Kiev, where many of the organization’s events are held.
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- 3. Images of Melania Trump in scanty clothes and even naked, shown on Russian State TV immediately after the election of Donald Trump, to humiliate Trump. Note the smirk on the face of the Russian female presenter, Olga Skabeeva. Nothing important is broadcast on this program, ironically called “60 Minutes,” without Putin’s approval.
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- 4. Russia’s enormous losses shortly after the US election of Donald Trump show that Putin was increasing the war tempo, and not obeying Trump’s demand for de-escalation and peace talks. Here we see that Russia’s losses on November 12, according to the Ukrainian Army General Staff, were 1950 soldiers killed and wounded in action (the orange figure), the highest daily figure for the entire war. (The total KIA/WIA figure for the entire war is an astounding 712,610.) Russia was launching “meat wave” assaults every 15 minutes in three major battle areas, likely to gain territory before Trump’s inauguration.
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- 5. According to Newsweek and other outlets, Russian State TV leading spokesman Vladimir Solovyov, a frequent “mouthpiece” for Putin, called for the destruction of “every dam in America” if President-elect Trump tried to impose a peace settlement on Russia and Ukraine. In the past he has advocated for the use of nuclear weapons against Europe and the US. Solovyov has been sanctioned and his two villas on Lake Como in Italy seized by the Italian police.
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- 6. The new Ukrainian missile-drone, the Palianytsia (“loaf of brown Ukrainian bread”), was announced and first used in August 2024. It is cheap, domestically produced, and driven by a turbojet engine. The wheels and undercarriage drop away on launch, and it has a range of about 370 miles. This is much further than the US-supplied ATACMS and HIMARS (both 190 miles) – perhaps soon the US will be begging for technical assistance and supplies from the Ukrainians!
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- 7. A Chinese-made Desertcross 1000-3 “golf cart” used by the Russians for “meat wave” assaults against Ukrainian positions. These vehicles have no armor and were largely annihilated by Ukrainian drones, mines and artillery. While still in use, the Russians have now mostly switched to WW I-style assaults on foot, by groups of 4-6 soldiers. The boots in the back show that the vehicle can be used to evacuate the wounded.
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- 8. The fall season of General Mud has arrived in Ukraine. The mud season occurs in fall and spring and is called Raputitsa in Russian and Bezdorizhzhya in Ukrainian. Both mean “roads don’t exist.” Fighting is almost impossible in these conditions. If the winter freeze is hard, then fighting can re-commence in late December and in January and February.
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- 9. President Zelenskyy puts a good face on the situation by declaring on November 15 that the “war will end sooner with Donald Trump as US President.” (From Ukrainska Pravda on-line news.) Maybe yes, maybe no.
Photos courtesy Lew Toulmin
